Surely there will be some sold to China. But I think you overestimate the demand from China. There are only around 25% the number of billionaires in China as there are in the US according to a recent Forbes article. I bet less than 50 918s are sold in China.

 

According to Wiki, there are only 93K people in the world with more than $30M.

Millionaire - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

According to Forbes, there are only around 1200 billionaires in the world.

The World's Billionaires - Forbes

I got the 10K centimillionaires from a less reliable source. But it seems like it's in the ballpark given these figures.

 

Hi uboat,

yes..fully agree. Your doubts are justified - even Porsche was wrong about the C-GT sales - they wanted to sell 1500..didnt work either. the 918 is too expensive..that will be its problem. And once an enzo successor is there which will trash the 918..then...oh boy.

I think that after 400-500 it will become very difficult for Porsche...they should bring this car to the market as soon as possible before Mclaren and Ferrari will put theirs on the market..

 

They could have sold the 1500 units, but they stopped production due to changing airbag regulations in the US.

 

My guess 500. I would be shocked of it was more.

 

I'd be SHOCKED if they sell more than 200, let alone 300 cars world wide.

 

First off, I wouldn't say that the 918 is Veyron money. The Veyron is still 50% more expensive than the 918 so that comparison doesn't really work. Likewise your claim about Ferrari "only" selling 400 Enzos at $650k each. Look at the used market for Enzos and it's pretty easy to see there's demand for them, even at $1M so I have no doubt Ferrari could've sold 500+ Enzos. And the Enzo successor is rumored to cost somewhere in the neighborhood of $1M.

Now, what does that mean for the 918? Given its rather lukewarm reception from just about everyone with the money to actually buy one, not to mention the required $400k deposit 2 yrs before even getting the car, I somehow doubt they'll hit their target anytime soon. My initial estimate is about 600-650 will make it to the road before Porsche rethinks their strategy and offers to build them without the huge deposit in hand. If they make the deposit more reasonable and the reviews of the car hold up well, I could see them making it to their 918 goal, which I'm sure they'll want to hit.

That's my take anyway.

 

I think we need to consider that the new McLaren will coming shortly which will compete with the 918 and will probably eat some of its sales.

 

Alex they waived the 2nd deposit of $200k.

 

I think that they will sell them all, for a couple of reasons: A- the exclusivity of owning one, and B- the exclusivity of owning one. I'd bet there are a lot of "$5M-$20M" millionaires out there that would love to have this car.