Good for Oregon, Bad for the Pac-10
Why Arguably the Nation's Strongest Conference Might Not Earn Two BCS Bids

By DARREN EVERSON

Now that Oregon has done what no team could do for the better part of a decade – dominate Southern California – perhaps now the oft-overlooked Pac-10 Conference will finally get some respect.

Or perhaps not. For the seventh straight season, the Pac-10 still might miss out on a second Bowl Championship Series bid. That's unfortunate, for the conference has emerged as not only the deepest in the country this season, but also the most deserving.

Consider this: Where might No. 7 Oregon be in the polls today if the Ducks hadn't visited Boise State in their season-opener – that is, if they scheduled like Florida, Texas and most other major programs?

No. 2 Texas has now virtually assured itself of reaching the national-title game by beating two opponents of note, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Both are major disappointments that faced the Longhorns without their best player. Texas's four remaining opponents – Central Florida, Baylor, Kansas and Texas A&M – aren't much of a challenge. All are struggling just to reach a bowl. And whomever the Big 12 North tosses out as a divisional "champion" will give the 'Horns no reasons to quake in their boots.

Likewise, Florida's schedule thus far still consists of just two teams with winning records: LSU and Troy.

Alabama is an exception. A major reason the Crimson Tide remains No. 1 in our estimation (see below) is because of its neutral-site victory over Virginia Tech, a losable non-conference game that provides an extra data point by which to measure Alabama. And granted, Texas was impressive in its 41-14 victory at Oklahoma State Saturday. It may well be that the Longhorns would've fared better at Boise State than Oregon did in its ugly 19-8 loss.

But we'll never know, since Texas didn't dare try. So the fact remains: The only difference today between Oregon and Texas is that the Ducks opened their season against a ranked team that entered that game on a 49-game regular-season home winning streak, while Texas took on Louisiana-Monroe. Oregon also plays in a tougher league: The Pac-10 has four ranked teams, one more than both the Big 12 and Southeastern conferences, even though those leagues are larger. Give Oregon a Sun Belt Conference cupcake to open the season instead, and the Ducks and Longhorns are likely neck-and-neck in the Bowl Championship Series standings. If anything, the Ducks would get the edge due to strength-of-schedule.

Unlike other major conferences, schools in the Pac-10 play rigorous schedules, largely out of necessity. With more fickle fan bases, the West Coast teams can't assume that pabulum games against Charleston Southern and Florida International will draw fans in droves. So USC played Ohio State and Notre Dame this season. Oregon's portfolio includes a victory over No. 17 Utah in addition to the 47-20 rout of the Trojans.

One cannot understate how jarring that score was. The 27-point loss marked USC's largest since 1997, during John Robinson's lamentable second term. It also arguably marked the first time in five years that anyone, in-conference or out, had even outplayed the Trojans. The last time a USC opponent significantly outgained the Trojans was 2004, when USC overcame a 219-yard deficit in its down-to-the-wire 23-17 victory over Aaron Rodgers and Cal. Before Saturday, four USC foes since then had outgained the Trojans, none by more than 31 yards. Oregon did so by 286 yards.

The Ducks were so good, they might've done their conference a disservice. With the Trojans losing so decisively, it's conceivable they could even be left out of the Bowl Championship Series entirely.

With eight BCS bids all but accounted for – six will go to conference champions, one (in all likelihood) to TCU or Boise State and one almost certainly to the SEC title-game loser – that leaves two at-large bids. Penn State (8-1) should grab one should it finish 11-1. If not, Ohio State, with games left against Penn State and Iowa, could sneak in by winning out. No conference has received second bids more often than the Big Ten, which has done so eight times in the BCS's 11 years. And then there's Notre Dame. If the Fighting Irish can just meet the requirements (nine wins, although Notre Dame would likely need 10, and a position 14th or better in the final standings), they would be a threat to receive one as well, given Notre Dame's popularity.

Such a scenario would be galling to USC, which routed Penn State in the Rose Bowl last season, beat Ohio State this season and last and has beaten Notre Dame eight straight times. It wouldn't be an unfamiliar fate, though, to the Pac-10, which had the best bowl-game record of the major conferences over the last five seasons, yet still seems to have to prove itself annually.