And then there were four. Mathematically, at least. Jenson Button can no longer defend his Formula 1 title, meaning the crown is about to change hands for the fourth year in a row. This weekend will also mark the first time that the Drivers’ Championship has been decided in the Abu Dhabi desert...

A reminder of the new-for-2010 points system:


Win 25
Second 18
Third 15
Fourth 12
Fifth 10
Sixth 8
Seventh 6
Eighth 4
Ninth 2
Tenth 1

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Fernando Alonso (championship leader, 246 points)
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Alonso has the easiest job, as finishing first or second would automatically guarantee a third title for the Ferrari driver.


BUT Alonso will not be Champion under the following circumstances:

- Webber wins and he finishes 3rd or lower
- Webber finishes 2nd and he finishes 6th or lower
- Webber finishes 3rd and he finishes 7th or lower
- Webber finishes 4th and he finishes 9th or lower
- Webber finishes 5th and he finishes 10th or lower
- Vettel wins and he finishes 5th or lower
- Vettel finishes 2nd and he finishes 9th or lower
- Hamilton wins and he fails to score

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Mark Webber (2nd overall, 238 points – 8 behind Alonso)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Whatever happens, Webber must finish at least 5th in order to become World Champion for the first time.


BUT Webber will not be Champion under the following circumstances:

- He finishes 6th or lower
- He finishes 5th with Alonso 9th or higher or Vettel 2nd or higher
- He finishes 4th with Alonso 8th or higher or Vettel wins
- He finishes 3rd with Alonso 6th or higher or Vettel wins
- He finishes 2nd with Alonso 5th or higher or Vettel wins
- He wins with Alonso 2nd

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sebastian Vettel (3rd overall, 231 points – 15 behind Alonso)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Whatever happens, Vettel must finish at least 2nd in order to become World Champion for the first time.


BUT Vettel will not be Champion under the following circumstances:

- He finishes 3rd or lower
- He finishes 2nd with Alonso 8th or higher or Webber 4th or higher
- He wins with Alonso 4th or higher

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Lewis Hamilton (4th overall, 222 points – 24 behind Alonso)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Quite simply, Hamilton must win in order to become World Champion


BUT Hamilton will not be Champion under the following circumstances:

- Alonso finishes 10th or higher
- Webber finishes 5th or higher
- Vettel finishes 2nd or higher

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SOURCE:One to go: The championship situation - GPUpdate.net

 

nice recap, thanks for the post!

 

Thanks for laying it out for us.

I have a feeling the following scenario will occur:

Vettel will be leading Webber in the closing laps of the race with Alonso in 3rd unless he loses an engine or somehow crashes. With Vettel in the lead, will the team call for him to slow down so Webber can win the WDC or will RBR let them fight for the race win and give the title to Alonso?

It's an interesting question and a scenario that I feel could be quite likely. I'm just not sure what RBR would do in that case. I'm sure they'd want to take the WCC and have one of their drivers win the WDC as well.

 

Red Bull won't implement team orders... It's up to Vettel if he wants to move over for Webber pending Alonso's position.

 

I hope the unibrow doesn't win... Webber's a good bloke - he should get it. Now just do the business, Mark.

 

Vettle crashes into Webber on last lap and Alonso takes the win and the WDC

 

Coming from a Hamilton/Mclaren fan, I honestly wouldn't mind Alonso winning it. He deserves it. He has been very spectacular this year minus a few things. I prefer Webber since Hamilton admits he needs a miracle, but I'm pretty mad at Red Bull right now because the whole "we're going to let them race" nonsense, which is showing that they are definitely in fact supporting Vettel in all of this.

 

Hi,

COME ON MARK. GET HER DONE!

I'm done with analysis at this stage (though I do appreciate the post) I'm going from the gut. I truly believe Webber has worked hard enough to deserve this, and I'm sure he would only want to win under real race conditions.

BRING HER HOME WEB!

Cheers,
Nik

 

Hopefully Mark can kill it without the teams help...I like the fact the rbr doesnt want to goof around with team orders but at this point, i find it pretty ridiculous. It is a teamsport after all (IMO).

Get it done Mark!!!

 

Webber deserves to win even though I'll be cheering for Hamilton to pull off a miracle! I don't mind if Vettel and Alonso tangle and crash out though. (wait did I say that out loud:?)