Introduction

When we all tuned in for the GP in China early Sunday morning, I think all of us were very concerned by the conditions. The pouring rain gave us all flashbacks of the debacle in Malaysia just a few weeks before. And when the race started behind the safety car, I think it is safe to say that we all regretted staying up to watch the race live. But once the safety car pulled off the track and the race got underway it was business as usual and in yet another grid shake up, Red Bull snagged a 1, 2 finish! Who would have thought that the 2009 season would be so wild and crazy. I know I didn't.

Sebastian Vettel has now solidified his status as the biggest rising start in Formula 1 by winning the race from pole in dominating and steller fashion. His Red Bull car went like hell the whole race - and without the aid of a double-decker diffuser. Mark Webber followed close behind with a masterful race nearly matching Vettel and holding fastest lap until the very end when he cruised to his podium finish. I think it is safe to say that Red Bull will most definitely be a contender the rest of the 2009 season. Vettel is still very young and is prone to mistakes. But he and Webber should consistently be in the hunt for podium finishes. And once they do get a double-decker diffuser on that car - look out!

Unfortunately, from a fantasy perspective, both Vettel and Webber are now too high priced for many of us to jump on the band wagon and enjoy their success. The fantasy F1 market reacts very quickly to success and failure. Congrats to those that saw Red Bull's success coming and added Vettel and Webber when they could both be bought for a song. Those days are over, and for those of us who missed the market, it may be a very long season indeed.

Brawn GP continued to have success finishing 3, 4 and with Rubens Barrichello snagging fastest lap of the race. Yet, if you look closely at this result, there may be some chinks in the Brawn GP team's seemingly inpenetrable armor. They were handed their lunch by a Red Bull team without a trick diffuser and had McLaren nipping at their heels with a makeshift unit. You have to believe that once Red Bull and McLaren get their diffusers figured out, Brawn may begin to have a lot of competition on their hands. If nothing else, this past race weekend proved that Brawn GP isn't going to run away with the championship as some had predicted.

McLaren looks to have at least some of their problems figured out as Kovalienen and Hamilton finished 5 and 6 in the race. It looked like Hamilton - a wet weather master - could have finished higher but a few poorly times spin outs cost him a better result. Early in the race Lewis looked like his old self with a great pass on Raikkonen and a swift move up the field. It was not to be, however, as he slipped down to finish 6th. Kovalienen took advantage of one of Lewis' mistakes to overtake him and finish ahead of his teammate.

Disappointments in the race included - once again - both Ferraris as Kimi could do no better than 10th and Massa retired behind the safety car with an inexplicable engine problem. Both Toyota drivers disappointed as well with Glock finishing 7th and Trulli getting knocked out of the race. Alonso could not live up to his 2nd place qualifying performance and finished just out of the points in 9th. But there is a silver lining for Alonso - he looked strong most of the race and if not for a spin at the end would likely have snagged a top 5 finish. His stock in on the way up.

The biggest suprise of the weekend was Sebastian Buemi who had an extremely strong drive. He stayed out of trouble and handled the tough conditions like a champ and finished in the points in 8th. The biggest heartbreak of the day was Adrian Sutil who looked to finish in the points for the first time for Force India only to sustain a pretty bad crash in the waning laps of the race. For those who had Sutil as a field filler, this was particularly devistating and likely hampered your otherwise good weekend.

All told, China was a very exciting race and allowed Red Bull to insert yet more uncertainty into the 2009 F1 season.



STATS

Here are the fantasy stats updated after the China GP.





Mirroring the 2009 F1 season, our league has had yet another lead change! This week TommyBahama (TS Username the same) had an incredible league high score of 807 points! This was good enough to vault him into the overall league lead with 2057 points! He was able to secure those 807 points with the following lineup:



It looks like the 7 driver lineup works my friends. That score was good enough for 22nd overall out of nearly 5,000 Fantasy Racer participants!

Just to put TommyBahama's performance in perspective, the Fantasy Racers overall top points - site wide - was 889 points with this lineup:



Note that the above lineup included all of the top finishers 1-4. Something to aspire to I guess. Incredible.



TEAM SPEED SURGES TO THE 12TH BEST LEAGUE!

Team Speed is the #12 private league with an average top 5 score of 1958.40! We can now sniff the top 10! Let's keep it up.



Fantasy Strategy



Dump all ties to Ferrari.

I am only slightly kidding. As you know, I boldly predicted that no matter how the diffuser ruling came down, Ferrari would have an answer in China. Well, I was wrong. At the start of the race - behind the safety car - we heard Kimi casually mention to the pit crew that his engine "sounded strange." Then we see Massa - also behind the safety car - stall on the track for no apparent reason. I still think he may have run out of gas but they won't admit it. For those of you - like me - who trusted in the Cavilino Ramparte to rise from the ahses and make us winners, we now have two drivers that we vastly overpaid for and who are not worth enough to trade in on anyone worthwhile. Are you as pissed off as me? I doubt it. To make matters worse, we now have Stephano Dominecali saying that Ferrari may just write-off the 2009 season and look towards 2010!! Boy were we snookered. So stay away from the boys in red if you can. If you already have them, you might as well hold on to them for Bahrain - they can't get any worse.

On a happier note, those of you who held on to Vettel and/or picked up Buemi, you are very happy. This all just underscores the importance of constantly watching driver values. As of the time I write this, here are the driver values:



Big movers include - of course - Vettel and Webber. But also note that Lewis Hamilton and Fernando Alonso have also increased in value despite not knocking anyone's socks off. Many are willing to gamble on them improving in the short term. Not so for Massa and Kimi. They are falling like rocks.

In the end, I still believe that Ferrari can figure things out and be competative this season. But I may just be in denial. . . .



WEEKLY RACE BANTER DISCUSSION THREADS

For Bahrain I am going back to a single thread for practice, qualifying and the race. Making separate threads didn't increase the number of members that joined the banter and I think a single thread is just easier.

Please join us in the banter thread to discuss all aspects of the Bahrain GP:

https://teamspeed.com/forums/pit-sto...er-thread.html

There were some who said that the deadline for picking drivers for race weekend snuck up on them this time. So, be sure to set your lineups by Friday April 24 at 10:00 am PST!

Good luck to everyone and thanks for playing!!

Dana

 

wow, a lot of work went into this post. nicely done.


i dropped the 7 driver idea before the last race switching to alonso, i don't have the money to go back.

 

Great post Dana! My fantasy strategy is still not working, hopefully I can figure things out over the next few races! Well done TommyBahama for taking the lead in Fantasy F1, great driver picks!

 

Amazing writeup as usual. I genuinely look forward to these recaps!

 

Excellent fantasy recap as always.

I'm kicking myself for my BMW decission... and dropping down the TS rankings. I now must spend every waking moment strategizing for Bahrain lol

 

Awesome post Dana.

Vettel and Button from the start baby!!

Also, when it rains, make sure you have the younger guys on your list. They seem to take bigger risks as a result of A) big ball sacks B) they have recent experience in the wet with no T/C as opposed to the older guys in F1.

Massa expression after he got out of the car seemed to imply a monumental f&*k up.

 

Is it to late for a "do over"? I'd like Michael Schumacher, vintage 2003-2006 without rain and those favorable "Ferrari" rules, please........

 

This is such a great recap, brother, thanks so much. Great descriptions, and emotions captured to the T. This one hit me the hardest: "For those who had Sutil as a field filler, this was particularly devistating and likely hampered your otherwise good weekend." When I saw him in 6th and he spun out with only 7 laps to go, it nearly sent me right to bed. I only stayed up because I wanted to see the smiley German win and scream--which he did! We can all pretty much bank on one thing going into Bahrain: it is not going to be a wet GP!!! Bahrain is fast. It's dry. It's a dusty track. The humidity is low. It has a different effect on engines and air compression. Suffice it to say, the teams are shifting gears in a short amount of time. Ferrari have traditionally performed very well in Bahrain. Look out!! I can't wait.

 

Splendid recap Dana! Thanks for taking the time to write this all out so thoughtfully and incorporate all the awesome pics too!

I dumped Kimi for Buemi tonight! Given my luck, I just screwed myself over and Kimi will win in Bahrain and Buemi won't even finish....

 

Where's my F1 Rep???