I was educating my wife about the drama that is F1 Racing today and I began to put together a theory about how the rest of the 2009 F1 season will pan out. As Kimi said earlier today, this season will likely be determined by settling the diffuser issue. But whether or not the double-decker diffuser is held to be legal or illegal, the teams that will benefit will be Ferrari and McLaren.

Let's say, for instance, that the double-decker diffuser is held to be legal. This is likely since the FIA has already determined the diffuser to be legal but is obligated by rule to hear Ferrari and McLaren's appeal. Once the diffuser is held to be legal, both Ferrari and McLaren will move to their own versions which will likely be a bit better than that currently being used by Brawn, Toyota and Williams. This will allow Ferrari and McLaren to move right back to the top of the grid. Speed is not Ferrari and McLaren's issue. It is purely a matter of getting the downforce and negative lift necessary to stick the car to the ground. Once Ferrari and McLaren achieve this with the newly-legal diffuser, they will be faster than Brawn, Toyota and Williams.

Now let's say - although highly unlikely - that the double-decker diffuser is held to be illegal. Once again, Ferrari and McLaren will be the big winners. If Brawn, Toyota and Williams can no longer use the illegal diffuser, then they totally lose the advantage they have gained over the big boys. With a level playing field reestablished, Ferrari and McLaren are free to assert their dominance as in the past.

So, either way - whether the double-decker diffuser is held legal or illegal - McLaren and Ferrari will be the real winners. This is why I strongly believe that by the time we reach Spain, the podium and those scoring championship points on the grid will largely return to 2007 and 2008 form. With Ferrari and McLaren moving back into podium contention every race and with Brawn GP taking the place of BMW for third best team, the top 5 finishers in every race will likely be Hamilton, Kov, Massa, Kimi and Button (in no particular order). This leaves only 3 championship point positions left on the grid. These will likely be divided between Barrichelo, Kubica, Vettel, Glock, Trulli and Rosberg. As you can see, there are not enough points to go around. Thus, my prediction is that Toyota and Williams will be largely forced down the grid and out of the points paying positions on a regular basis.

This stabilization of the grid back to 2007 and 2008 form may not take place in China or Bahrain. But by the time we hit Europe, you had better be well situated with Lewis, Kimi, Massa and Button on your Fantasy team. Because if you wait too long, you will not be able to assemble a quality 5-driver or better team with those 4 guys at the heart. Once the diffuser issue is resolved - regardless of the oucome - Ferrari, McLaren and Brawn will be dominant. Don't get stuck with Glock, Trulli and Rosberg once that happens or it may be a very long season for you.

That's my prediction. What do you think??

 

I hope they determine its legal so we can see the Ferrari and McLaren crew try to play techno-catch up... I think it adds an interesting twist. I like seing the bGP guys doing well and I'm afraid they aren't good enough to stay competitive if they have to get used to the feel of different technology.

 

But even if it is held to be legal - which is almost 99% certain - you have to believe that Ferrari and McLaren have a pretty nice version of their own waiting in the wings. The reason they are both doing so poorly is because all of the engineering efforts have been being put into devloping a kick-ass double-decker diffuser that will leave Brawn in the dust. It also explains why the teams are so philosophical about their early struggles. They know that if the diffuser is held to be legal they have an answer. And they also know - as you pointed out - that if it is held to be illegal, Brawn, Toyota and Williams have lost their advantage and the playing field will become level. All things being equal, my money is on the Pony and the Big Mac.

 

I think Barrister has it just about right.

 

I don't know how it will play, but I'm going to say it is wrong to doubt Brawn. Apparently Ross Brown tried to bring all the teams together to modify the rules when he noticed the loophole and teams brushed him off. I'm sure that whatever the ruling, if the diffuser is held to be illegal Brawn will still have an answer because it would be naive to assume that he doesn't have a contingency.

Also, since brawn has studied the rules so carefully, there is the possibility that if the diffuser is held to be illegal, that he will be able to jump on other teams and find the loopholes they've been exploiting and bring that too appeal.

 

I said that I thought that Brawn would still be there with Ferrari and McLaren no matter how the diffuser issue is resolved. It is Toyota and Williams that will get pushed down the grid.

 

yeah I don't disagree but I think there will be a bit of a learning curve for whoever loses the ruling while they get used to a car that will probably feel significantly different.... The BGP guys it would seem are less likely to adapt well if they have to switch to new tech so I think if they win the ruling they stay more competitive... the field will be leveled either way, I think whoever has more seat time with the level field will have a slight advantage for a few more weeks.

I'm fairly new to the sport though so I could be talking complete nonsense

 

No doubt Brawn will still be there, but I am more trying to state that they'll still be ahead. Since testing Brawn has known the possibility that they might need a car without the diffuser and probably had the car set-up without the diffuser since then.

Whereas Ferrari and Mclaren are burning through money trying to catch-up, not letting them improve on other aspects of the car other than the diffuser. To me Brawn is in the cat-bird seat, because either way he has the best grasp of tech regs and is in the swiftest position to move regardless of the verdict. Brawn has all the data that he can observe to see how cars without the diffuser perform as 7/10 don't use the diffuser and this gives them a better chance to adapt should the diffusers be found illegal.

 

Good points all.

Something else to consider is that the Red Bull cars - especially Vettel - have been very quick with no diffuser. It could be that Vettel is in the best position to take advantage of the ruling - either way.

 

Although I'd love to disagree with you and see a real shake up where some of the so-called little guys have a chance, I just dont see it happening. I agree 100% with your predictions. When was the last time you remember McLaren and Ferrari not being competitive throughout an entire season?