As the excitement builds ahead of the 2009 F1 curtain-raiser in Melbourne, itv.com/f1 columnist James Allen assesses where the teams stand after a more than usually intriguing winter testing campaign.
James puts his cards on the table and backs Brawn GP for a sensational debut victory, while he reckons rejuvenated 2007 champion Kimi Raikkonen is a good bet for a second title.


I can’t remember a season I’ve looked forward to as much as this one.
It’s going to be fascinating to see who comes out on top in qualifying and the race in Melbourne and then to see whether the same names are still on top at the end of the season.
We have new and highly complex cars with movable aerodynamics and KERS and, let’s not forget, some of the most talented drivers for a generation. Brawn GP is the story as the season gets underway.

I watched them testing in Barcelona a few weeks ago, spoke with Jenson Button and Ross Brawn about the car and they are all very excited.
As Honda this team knew that they had a real winner on their hands and their frustration when the Honda board pulled the plug on the F1 programme was immense.
Ross Brawn had no alternative but to save the team and give this astonishing car a chance to race.
Their long-run pace is unbelievable and they will be very hard to beat in Melbourne. The BGP001 is quick over a single lap too.
I think Jenson Button has to be in with a very good chance as he’s always been quick around Melbourne. He had pole there in 2006.
Mind you, Rubens is no slouch around there either: he has had four front row starts and four podiums.

Can Brawn stay ahead as the teams carry on relentless development through the season?
Well, it’s an independent team, but it has a budget to impress – subsidised by Honda – and it has the facilities of a top team.
It will depend a bit on whether the FIA says the diffuser is legal or not. We wait with baited breath…



Leading the chasing pack is Ferrari, with Kimi Raikkonen looking as though he’s back to his old self after an unimpressive 2008 season.
He is more comfortable with this car than he was with last year’s model, and for me he starts the season as favourite for the championship.
Team mate Felipe Massa grew up massively last year as a man and as a driver and he will again be a force.
BMW has made real progress every season since the takeover of Sauber in 2006.
They have achieved their targets and now comes the big one: the challenge for the championship.
It’s hard to judge their pace from testing; at times they looked very quick, but then at others they looked ordinary.
Chances are that they were carrying extra fuel weight when they looked ordinary and that the car will be close to the pace of the Ferrari.
Both drivers are strong, but Robert Kubica has the ‘X’ factor and he could well challenge for the title.
The signs are that Toyota are more competitive than they have been before and this will give Jarno Trulli a chance to show what he can do.

He’s as quick as anyone out there, but his race performances have sometimes been erratic.
He’s not the best at driving around problems, but it seems that this year’s Toyota doesn’t have many problems, so he will be at the sharp end of the grid from the outset.
I was impressed with Timo Glock last year, but he’s not as quick as Trulli.
Red Bull and Williams are both customer engined teams desperate to break into the front rank this year.
The signs are that both teams have built a good car, but there are only three places on every podium and the competition is fierce.
I fear for Mark Webber, coming back from injury and being matched up with Sebastian Vettel. It’s a severe test for the likable Aussie.
For Vettel Red Bull is either a stepping stone to the very top or the team that will take him there; both sides want to find out which it will be.
Here we are halfway down the preview and the first mention of McLaren.

I wrote at the end of last season that I thought they’d struggle having put so much effort into winning last year’s championship, but I didn’t think they’d fall this far behind.
When I saw the car in Barcelona it looked a handful. They’ve improved it since and it has done some decent single lap times, but its long-run pace was miles off the Brawn and without track testing it will be harder to make up the lost time.
Lewis Hamilton will be forced to prove his worth in a slow car – which, if he pulls it off, might gain him some credit with his legion of critics.
Force India and Toro Rosso are both well-run teams with a very high standard of engineering.
STR won a race last year from pole, which may prove the high-water mark.

Force India have improved their car no end thanks to the technical partnership with Mercedes and McLaren for engine, gearbox and hydraulics.
It’s a sign of how good F1 teams are nowadays that they still prop up the table, despite building what looks like a pretty decent car. That’s how competitive the sport’s top flight is in 2009.