Wall Street Journal: USC -- The Nation's Real No. 1 Team
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Wall Street Journal: USC -- The Nation's Real No. 1 Team
OK, fire away SEC and Big 12 lovers.
USC: The Best Team, Not the Most Deserving
Why the Trojans, Despite Their Tremendous Defense, Face a Higher Standard Than Other BCS Contenders
By DARREN EVERSON
Let's take a timeout from the Big 12 tiebreaker debate and the Alabama-Florida discussion. Let's take a moment to consider the plight of the nation's real No. 1 team.
USC coach Pete Carroll may end up looking up at rivals from the SEC and Big 12 even though his team could have the talent to beat them.
This is not to say that the Southern California Trojans, who of course had their chance, ought to play in the national championship. If they'd beaten Oregon State, they'd have nothing to worry about. It's not like the system totally let them down. But we also know that it's far from perfect. The fact that the Trojans have played the second half of the season with so little hope for a title shot encapsulates today's often unfair college football landscape.
We've already discussed the correlation between elite defenses and national championships. (The last five title-game winners didn't all dominate offensively, but all ranked top-10 nationally in total defense.) Well, USC 2008 is as elite as defense gets. The Trojans aren't merely tops in most defensive statistics. Their 3.4 yards-per-play average is miles ahead of the field. To put this figure into perspective: The 1997 Michigan defense, the Charles Woodson group generally regarded as the most dominating defense of recent years, allowed 3.7 yards per play. And that predated the spread of the spread offense.
As with baseball's heightened offensive numbers of the late 1990s, fans should consider the environment that USC's defense plays in. Two seasons ago, just one team (Hawaii) topped 40 points per game for the season and 20 teams averaged over 30. This season, 11 schools are averaging better than 40 points (five of them in the Big 12), and 37 are getting 30 per game (four of which USC played). In an offensive year USC has posted historic defensive numbers.
So despite all the hype surrounding the Oklahoma offense -- and we've been on that bandwagon too -- USC's defense may be the best unit in college football. Yet USC likely will be consigned to the Rose Bowl for a fourth straight season (yes, they did play for the national crown there following the 2005 season). The Trojans can only hope for Missouri to shock Oklahoma, which controversially leapfrogged Texas in the latest Bowl Championship Series standings, in the Big 12 title game.
USC's angst at watching the title game from home represents the second-most unfortunate outcome of Oregon State's loss to Oregon, after the gnashing of teeth in Corvallis, a city that hasn't sent its boys to Pasadena in January since the Johnson administration. If the Trojans couldn't go to the national-title game, at least they could test themselves against Texas in the Fiesta Bowl and have a shot to prove their worth. Instead, Oregon State comes back to haunt them twice.
It's becoming increasingly clear that, unlike the champions of other conferences, USC must go undefeated to reach the national-title game. Even in 2003, when the Trojans finished the regular season ranked first in both major polls, the BCS computers excluded them from the title game. The Big 12 likely will land a one-loss team in the national-championship game this season, as have the Big Ten and Southeastern conferences in recent years (the SEC sent two-loss LSU last season).
But USC, regarded as playing a weaker schedule in the Pac-10, has been held to a tougher standard. The irony of this predicament? The Trojans should have less to prove than other contenders, given their 5-1 all-time BCS bowl record and that, like the rest of the Pac-10, they buck the national trend by playing a rigorous nonconference schedule. Sensitive to more fickle fan bases less likely to swallow the weak nonconference pablum served elsewhere, USC and other Pac-10 schools schedule more major-college competition than other conferences. For example, undefeated Alabama's nonconference slate included Clemson, Tulane, Western Kentucky and Arkansas State.
Meanwhile, the Trojans played Virginia, Ohio State and Notre Dame -- three big names, albeit two mired in surprisingly mediocre seasons. Come season's end, though, USC gets little credit for it, and gets unfairly punished by the computers for playing in a conference with Washington and Washington State teams playing outrageously awful ball. The worst in other conferences -- say, Iowa State in the Big 12 -- were about as beatable. They just didn't get outscored 127-0 over two games the way the Cougars did.
The Pac-10 also lacks a championship game. Florida, a team with a resume similar to USC's, can play its way into the national-title game thanks to its conference title match with Alabama. Then again, there's no need for it out west, since every Pac-10 team plays each other.
And so, back the Trojans trudge to Pasadena -- first for the season finale against UCLA, then, in all likelihood, for another ho-hum New Year's Day. Have they only themselves to blame for it? Sure. Just because they're college football's strongest team doesn't mean they're the most deserving of a title shot. Contenders in the SEC and Big 12 can make legitimate claims for those two golden tickets. But if we're wondering who's really No. 1, it says something that USC has gotten so good, it's tired of the Rose Bowl.
USC: The Best Team, Not the Most Deserving
Why the Trojans, Despite Their Tremendous Defense, Face a Higher Standard Than Other BCS Contenders
By DARREN EVERSON
Let's take a timeout from the Big 12 tiebreaker debate and the Alabama-Florida discussion. Let's take a moment to consider the plight of the nation's real No. 1 team.
USC coach Pete Carroll may end up looking up at rivals from the SEC and Big 12 even though his team could have the talent to beat them.
This is not to say that the Southern California Trojans, who of course had their chance, ought to play in the national championship. If they'd beaten Oregon State, they'd have nothing to worry about. It's not like the system totally let them down. But we also know that it's far from perfect. The fact that the Trojans have played the second half of the season with so little hope for a title shot encapsulates today's often unfair college football landscape.
We've already discussed the correlation between elite defenses and national championships. (The last five title-game winners didn't all dominate offensively, but all ranked top-10 nationally in total defense.) Well, USC 2008 is as elite as defense gets. The Trojans aren't merely tops in most defensive statistics. Their 3.4 yards-per-play average is miles ahead of the field. To put this figure into perspective: The 1997 Michigan defense, the Charles Woodson group generally regarded as the most dominating defense of recent years, allowed 3.7 yards per play. And that predated the spread of the spread offense.
As with baseball's heightened offensive numbers of the late 1990s, fans should consider the environment that USC's defense plays in. Two seasons ago, just one team (Hawaii) topped 40 points per game for the season and 20 teams averaged over 30. This season, 11 schools are averaging better than 40 points (five of them in the Big 12), and 37 are getting 30 per game (four of which USC played). In an offensive year USC has posted historic defensive numbers.
So despite all the hype surrounding the Oklahoma offense -- and we've been on that bandwagon too -- USC's defense may be the best unit in college football. Yet USC likely will be consigned to the Rose Bowl for a fourth straight season (yes, they did play for the national crown there following the 2005 season). The Trojans can only hope for Missouri to shock Oklahoma, which controversially leapfrogged Texas in the latest Bowl Championship Series standings, in the Big 12 title game.
USC's angst at watching the title game from home represents the second-most unfortunate outcome of Oregon State's loss to Oregon, after the gnashing of teeth in Corvallis, a city that hasn't sent its boys to Pasadena in January since the Johnson administration. If the Trojans couldn't go to the national-title game, at least they could test themselves against Texas in the Fiesta Bowl and have a shot to prove their worth. Instead, Oregon State comes back to haunt them twice.
It's becoming increasingly clear that, unlike the champions of other conferences, USC must go undefeated to reach the national-title game. Even in 2003, when the Trojans finished the regular season ranked first in both major polls, the BCS computers excluded them from the title game. The Big 12 likely will land a one-loss team in the national-championship game this season, as have the Big Ten and Southeastern conferences in recent years (the SEC sent two-loss LSU last season).
But USC, regarded as playing a weaker schedule in the Pac-10, has been held to a tougher standard. The irony of this predicament? The Trojans should have less to prove than other contenders, given their 5-1 all-time BCS bowl record and that, like the rest of the Pac-10, they buck the national trend by playing a rigorous nonconference schedule. Sensitive to more fickle fan bases less likely to swallow the weak nonconference pablum served elsewhere, USC and other Pac-10 schools schedule more major-college competition than other conferences. For example, undefeated Alabama's nonconference slate included Clemson, Tulane, Western Kentucky and Arkansas State.
Meanwhile, the Trojans played Virginia, Ohio State and Notre Dame -- three big names, albeit two mired in surprisingly mediocre seasons. Come season's end, though, USC gets little credit for it, and gets unfairly punished by the computers for playing in a conference with Washington and Washington State teams playing outrageously awful ball. The worst in other conferences -- say, Iowa State in the Big 12 -- were about as beatable. They just didn't get outscored 127-0 over two games the way the Cougars did.
The Pac-10 also lacks a championship game. Florida, a team with a resume similar to USC's, can play its way into the national-title game thanks to its conference title match with Alabama. Then again, there's no need for it out west, since every Pac-10 team plays each other.
And so, back the Trojans trudge to Pasadena -- first for the season finale against UCLA, then, in all likelihood, for another ho-hum New Year's Day. Have they only themselves to blame for it? Sure. Just because they're college football's strongest team doesn't mean they're the most deserving of a title shot. Contenders in the SEC and Big 12 can make legitimate claims for those two golden tickets. But if we're wondering who's really No. 1, it says something that USC has gotten so good, it's tired of the Rose Bowl.
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