How Many 918s Will Porsche Actually Sell?
 

Is anyone as dubious as moi that Porsche will sell all 918 slots for the 918? At $850k, that puts the 918 in Veyron territory pricewise. According to Wiki, since 2005 only around 450 Veyrons have been sold over seven years. Porsche sold 1270 Carrera GTs, but the price was about 1/2 that of the 918. Ferrari sold around 400 Enzos for around $650K, but hey it was the Ferrari flagship and we all know what fanatics Ferrari owners are. Moreover, I think a lot of people will be turned off by the complexity of the 918 and the fact that it relies, in part, on electric motors. Personally, I would take a used CGT at less than 1/2 the price over the 918 any day.

What say you members of TS? I think around 400 or so at most.

They're really trying to sell 918 units? Can't say I see that happening. I think a realistic production would be 500 max. You never know, but to me this car doesn't have the wow factor of most cars in that price range e.g. Pagani zonda/huayra, koenisegg, veyron. That's not to deny that it will be a great car I just think that it is priced very steeply

All of them. And a waiting list.

they will sell every one of them

A better question is how many mclaren supercars will they sell seeing as they haven't said any firm number that they will make. 500 at least is my guess.

I would think that the consumer for this car already has his CGT, Enzo, Veyron, etc. This is a car that appeals to someone with more than one car in his collection. I assume that one needs at least $50M of wealth in order to consider plunking down $1M (with US sales taxes and much more in other countries) on a single car. There are only around 10K people in the world with $100M of wealth. How many of them are car guys? I think the market for $1M cars is very limited and, in any event, less than 1,000 people in the world.

I have no doubt they will sell all of them.

Pretty sure Jaime will own and sell at least 20 of them at one point or another:lol:

I would say everyone of them.... China market would take on a lot of them...

Bet that numbers wrong.

Surely there will be some sold to China. But I think you overestimate the demand from China. There are only around 25% the number of billionaires in China as there are in the US according to a recent Forbes article. I bet less than 50 918s are sold in China.

According to Wiki, there are only 93K people in the world with more than $30M.

Millionaire - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

According to Forbes, there are only around 1200 billionaires in the world.

The World's Billionaires - Forbes

I got the 10K centimillionaires from a less reliable source. But it seems like it's in the ballpark given these figures.

Hi uboat,

yes..fully agree. Your doubts are justified - even Porsche was wrong about the C-GT sales - they wanted to sell 1500..didnt work either. the 918 is too expensive..that will be its problem. And once an enzo successor is there which will trash the 918..then...oh boy.

I think that after 400-500 it will become very difficult for Porsche...they should bring this car to the market as soon as possible before Mclaren and Ferrari will put theirs on the market..

They could have sold the 1500 units, but they stopped production due to changing airbag regulations in the US.

My guess 500. I would be shocked of it was more.

I'd be SHOCKED if they sell more than 200, let alone 300 cars world wide.

First off, I wouldn't say that the 918 is Veyron money. The Veyron is still 50% more expensive than the 918 so that comparison doesn't really work. Likewise your claim about Ferrari "only" selling 400 Enzos at $650k each. Look at the used market for Enzos and it's pretty easy to see there's demand for them, even at $1M so I have no doubt Ferrari could've sold 500+ Enzos. And the Enzo successor is rumored to cost somewhere in the neighborhood of $1M.

Now, what does that mean for the 918? Given its rather lukewarm reception from just about everyone with the money to actually buy one, not to mention the required $400k deposit 2 yrs before even getting the car, I somehow doubt they'll hit their target anytime soon. My initial estimate is about 600-650 will make it to the road before Porsche rethinks their strategy and offers to build them without the huge deposit in hand. If they make the deposit more reasonable and the reviews of the car hold up well, I could see them making it to their 918 goal, which I'm sure they'll want to hit.

That's my take anyway.

I think we need to consider that the new McLaren will coming shortly which will compete with the 918 and will probably eat some of its sales.

Alex they waived the 2nd deposit of $200k.

I think that they will sell them all, for a couple of reasons: A- the exclusivity of owning one, and B- the exclusivity of owning one. I'd bet there are a lot of "$5M-$20M" millionaires out there that would love to have this car. :lol:

Ah, hadn't heard that. I'd guess they'd sell them all then.

Interesting question and difficult to say.

The Enzo successor will do very well, I am sure of that much.

If the 918 can destroy the Ferrari on track it will at least have a fighting chance, but otherwise it is a dIfficilt sell.

I believe all 918 will be sold without much of a problem, I just pray Mansory doesn't get a hold of any...

Alex: I think your missing that the market for Veyron purchasers is the same market for this car. $850K vs. $1.2M isn't a meaningful difference at that price level. On the other hand, $450K vs $850K are completely different market segments.

To me it makes the CGT all the more appealing.

Porsche ≠ Ferrari by any stretch. I don't think you can compare these two at all.

I will be very surprised if they sell out.

it will be close and Im certain they wont sell out prior to them hitting the streets but I think it will be in the 750-800 range.

Porsche will sell them out. Because they will say that. Whether they do or not, is another story.
200-300 is my guess.

Agreed Sir - although I give them a bit more credit...with around 400 sold units..

U boat commander is correct -400K compared to 850K is a different maarket-customer basis...lets see..

Even the Veyron is having trouble to get sold..there is a first hype..but then..its quickly forgotten. What I mean - once this car is in the show room and people need to get convinced by walking around it..weigthing the pros and cons..than it too late for them..eiter they sell the quickly or game over. and once therre will be an Enzo successor--than its game over anyway for 918..

Come to think of it, if production lasts two and a half years as it was with the Carrera GT, I think they could be capable of selling 918.

But even with a car as desirable and reasonably priced as the Carrera GT, they didn't build 230 of them that they were supposed to, but wasn't that due to U.S airbag regulations in the seats or something like that?

They'll sell most, but I bet the later ones are discounted.
#900 @ $750K is still more profitable than stopping production at #700.
Wasn't the CGT discounted at the end?

Yeah, I know one dealer discounted 50k off msrp.

Porsche used the air bag thing as an excuse to not offer any '06s here. They had brand new ones sitting on the floor under msrp trying to move em.
At double the price, no chance in hell they sell 918 cars, no chance at all. 1270 was a struggle at half the price.

they would sell at at 400k - ---highly doubt it at their price

Wonder if they will have a Porsche ambassador discount on the 918 :)

The real question is how many are already spoken for

100 in the US. My guess. I don't think Texas has 5. All the local CGT guys are not buying.

i think they will sell them all..

why? well people got stupid money and they want the latest stuff..

By the way, there was an article in a German newspaper this sunday about the 918 ..it was also partly an interview with Mr Walliser - the prject responsible for the 918 - here is what I remember.

1. roughly one third of the 918 already sold..however, this figure was not quoted from his words directly..so it remains "unconfirmed"

2. What he however said:
a) engine will go up to 11,000rpm in production car...thats a lot..so a worthy follow up of the c-gt

b) car is more or less ready in development terms, the remaining testing issues are related to noise and vibration. This confirmed what I guessed already before..the car is from its performance already very close to final specification..which is normal..you dont start developing a car first by testing mirrors or seats..you start with essentials firs..than the details.

dubai could take half of that many.... the us could take 200. northern europe could take 100+ china, 100? johnsgt, 2.... teamspeed, 10....

anyway, those that want to buy this car only need to come to the table with 15k per month, maybe less. being a pmt buyer, all a guy needs is fairly decent monthly income. fwiw, dallas texas could buy all of em!

i would like to see this thread go full circle :)