Yes, OK, I'll say it: the Liga race is over.

That's not to say that there won't be more twists and turns, and that my debate isn't worth reading until the new season (heaven forbid!), and that they could be run close. But Barcelona are going to win the Primera Division.

It's hardly a massive revelation, although it is difficult for me to say, given that I tipped Real Madrid to win the Liga (and Bernd Schuster to win Coach of the Year award!). But Barcelona are just doing it right, and there is no sign of their stopping.

Pep Guardiola's mixture of youth and experience has undone so many of the frailties of last season, and his squad are clearly responding to his style. Barcelona are going out and scoring chances that last season they would have blazed wide. And what is more, there is the absence of a real challenger.

Salgado's Statement

Real Madrid may be saying that they can still win the Liga, but they will not, and perhaps nobody knows it more than them.

Sure, the faithful will point to Michel Salgado's statement of defiance last week, but let us remember who was issuing similar utterances the last two seasons: Barcelona.

Last summer is a good case in point. "We can do it!" - that was the manifesto. Joan Laporta shouted it from the rooftops and loyal newspapers pressed it into service as a headline.

In the end it was, just like a headline, all sound and no action. Barcelona could not do it for any number of reasons: injuries, a lame duck manager, an inferior squad, and above all a crippling sense of self-doubt.

These have all, at differing times this season, plagued Real Madrid, and although Bernd Schuster has been forced out in favour of Juande Ramos this change will not be enough to fully reverse the trend. The injury situation remains too grave; the lack of confidence that bred errors earlier in the season has already blazed its tragic trail; and after holding out for 83 minutes and still losing at the weekend, all talk of an 'improved performance' must be countered by the fact that, well, Madrid still lost.

Second Best

But why the focus on Real Madrid? Keen observers might just notice that there are four other teams between the blancos and the summit - surely they deserve a mention too.

They do, and to my mind one in particular does above all others. That is Sevilla. The Andalucians may have just managed a one goal win over Villarreal at the weekend, but they were well worth it, and the confidence that oozed from their play shows that they are not going to be taken lightly in the business end of the season.

The Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan side have recovered from losing arguably their two best non-striker players over the summer by getting off to a rip-roaring start, and more impressively yet Manolo Jimenez has effectively silenced almost all of his doubters.

Valencia are another side in with an outside shot, as are Villarreal, but in the latter case a Champions League campaign could prove a bridge too far, while Los Che still have a couple of weak links to fix before they can be title contenders - as do Atletico Madrid.

So to my mind it lies with Real Madrid - who aren't going to be able to reduce the deficit - and Sevilla to mount a convincing challenge.

It's a smile-worthy twist of fate that the very side Juande Ramos left is the one that could pip his Real Madrid side to second place. And that's all it will be, because Barcelona have it sewn up.

Ewan Macdonald, Goal.com

 

For Real Madrid supporters, El Clásico has yielded mixed feelings. After a 90-minute re-enactment of the Spanish Civil War, a loss to blood rivals (in the literal sense of the word) Barcelona is a bitter pill to swallow. The Camp Nou result leaves Los Blancos sitting 12 points behind La Liga’s leaders—a formidable deficit as the season nears its halfway mark.

But in a manner atypical of a 2-0 loss to their arch-nemesis, Real Madrid come out of Catalunya with their heads held high. The pundits and the bookies had written them off and while Barcelona was expected, even by Prime Ministers, to score the coveted five-goal “manita” against La Liga’s titleholders, the Blaugrana goal-machine seemed to have met its match.

The knife’s edge Clásico leaves Real Madrid as a team changed. In just two matches under Juande Ramos, Los Blancos seem a side reborn, but in a very different mould than that of Schuster’s championship squad. The improvement isn’t in the individual quality of play, but rather in the style of team play that seems to have been responsible for the change in form. What Juande Ramos brings to Real Madrid is something that Schuster could not: tactical prowess.

Tactics can dramatically change the result of a match. They bring adaptability and variation to the field of play. Schuster’s Real Madrid was what a team can never be if it is expected to win: predictable. The bulk of Madrid’s play under the German manager usually amounted to a passing drill between Marcelo, Cannavaro, Pepe, and Ramos as the team would search for passing lanes through Gago, or occasionally Guti and Sneijder. Play seemed to circumvent the middle of the pitch entirely and the ball would climb up the flanks through Drenthe on the left or Ramos pushing up the right, before being sent into the box by way of a cross or a spell of one-touch passes.

Conversely, Juande Ramos’ Madrid brings variability—and when an opponent is unsure of what a team is going to do, the team becomes dangerous. Under Ramos, Metzelder has already been deployed in the right-back berth, Salgado has been utilised as a left back, Sergio Ramos as a Messi-marking left back, Marcelo as a left-winger (in a position curiously similar to Sevilla’s Adriano when Ramos managed the Andalusian side), Robben predominantly as a right-winger, and even Miguel Palanca, a virtual unknown from the Castilla youth team, as a right-sided substitute (in one of world football’s biggest matches, no less!).

Throughout his managing career, Ramos has made a habit out of assessing a player’s best qualities and utilizing those qualities in a manner that benefits the team as a whole. He adjusts his tactics to fit the players instead of adjusting the players to fit the tactics (à la Freddy Kanouté). Madrid has benefited enormously from this new philosophy of play and now find themselves a team with a renewed sense of confidence and guile.

This leaves the math which is, admittedly, difficult. Twelve points is a significant margin and having proven themselves superior, it will be Barcelona’s Liga to lose. Having lost only one game thus far in La Liga, such a slip-up seems unlikely but, despite how the Blaugrana have been playing, it is not unfathomable.

The second half of the season is more difficult than the first on all fronts. In La Liga, teams begin to play better as they gel and gain more experience. Aside from the big guns of Villarreal, Sevilla, Valencia, and Atlético, teams like Getafe, Athletic, Valladolid, Deportivo, Racing, and Betis have begun to improve and could surprise by the season’s end.

The competitions become increasingly difficult as well. Champions League and Copa del Rey matches put a higher premium on winning and teams can find themselves stretched thin and fatigued come La Liga matchdays. Consistency is much more difficult to come by as the football schedule begins to fill.

Finally, the injuries begin to hit. With stiffer and more frequent competition, fitness becomes an issue. Dangerous as players like Messi are to other teams—especially when on the ball, the reverse can also be true; a player is more likely to take a knock and sustain injury when he is the focus of attention for the opposing defence. As Real Madrid’s injury woes have shown, no team can be expected to perform with any real success when injuries render pivotal players as spectators.

If La Liga were over today, Barça would be crowned the undisputed champions, lifting a well-earned trophy while Real Madrid would lament a 6th place Uefa Cup finish. But thankfully, for all football fans, La Liga is not over today. The season is long and the story is only half-written. Who knows what sorts of twists and turns are in store and what kind of surprise ending we’ll be enjoying in May? It’s not over until it’s over. That’s why they play the game…

Cyrus C. Malek, Goal.com

 

Indeed La liga is far from over, and it would be a stretch to write off the defending champs but the fact remains with a sizable margin in points between the two it is Barcelona's to loose. Real Madrid would have to win all games including the next El Clasico and Barca would still have to loose three other games and draw once in order for Madrid to pip Barca by a solitary point come the end of the season. Impossible? certainly not, but it is a tall order for Los Blancos to be crowned champions this season against a Barcelona that have rediscovered their form that got them the domestic and European titles in 2006